Top 6 supplement market trends in 2024 – spotlight

Though concerns about vaccine safety and science may be dominating the headlines as we head into 2025, in 2024 U.S. consumers weighed in clearly that strong science commands their supplement-purchasing decisions. Industry trends that stood out this year are all unified by the guiding principle of science first, including validated benefits, rigorous clinical studies and quality standards in manufacturing.

The supplement market grew by 4.4% in 2023 according to the Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ) 2024 Supplement Business Report — putting it on track for a projected $67.43 billion market in 2024. While the growth rate is more than double what was seen in 2022, it faces solid-but-unspectacular projected gains through 2027, hovering in the mid-single digits. How can supplement makers increase momentum and outperform expectations? Industry analysts believe science is the answer: Commit to it. Communicate it. And keep the following trends in mind while you plan for 2025 and beyond:

Clinical validation is more important than ever to consumers, according to data collected by McKinsey & Company. Researchers found that consumers prioritize clinically proven ingredients over those that are clean label.¹ In a study Radicle Science conducted with UC San Diego last year surveying over 1,000 consumers, individuals were twice as likely to buy a health and wellness product labeled “clinically proven.” They also said they would be willing to pay over 20% more for a product carrying that label. “It’s about doing the right thing and following the money. In this case, both point in the same direction — creating products that are clean, safe and proven to work,” said Pelin Thorogood, co-founder and executive chair, Radicle Science.  

Clinical trials have a special role in building trust with consumers. The more specific the subject group, the more powerful the trial, Thorogood added. “Trials must be conducted on the intended population — if a product is for women, a clinical trial on men won’t be adequate,” she said.

2. AI acceleration

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to empower the supplement industry even more than the advent of the tablet press or the capsule-filling machine, particularly when it comes to overall safety and compliance. For example, there are food safety and regulatory compliance platforms that now combine AI and human expertise to help companies provide safer, sustainable and compliant products to consumers. The speed and knowledge boost these platforms deliver can give companies a competitive edge in the market.²

AI could streamline progress in other areas as well, including advancing clinical trial design and expanding market research identifying exactly what consumers are searching for and which competitors may be providing it.³ AI also has the potential to help companies better meet the demand for personalized nutrition, suggesting custom supplement recommendations based on a consumer’s health information.

AI is also starting to create new opportunities for natural product retailers, who are leveraging the technology to streamline operations, accelerate innovation, develop new shopping and in-store experiences for their customers and provide personalized outreach that can deepen customer loyalty and relationships. Experts in a recent article in Natural Foods Merchandiser note that AI could even help level the playing field for smaller retailers.⁴

3. Healthspan: Shifts in thinking about aging and longevity

Supplement sales in the healthy aging category have been steadily outpacing overall supplement industry growth since 2022, according to the  2024 NBJ Longevity Report.  For success in this category, it’s critical to understand the changing ways consumers now think about aging. SPINS refers to the transition as “Forever Young to Gracefully Aging.” Today, shoppers are not just seeking more years. They want more healthy years. And they are willing to invest in the quest. For savvy manufacturers, this shift can uncover opportunities as consumers seek a vibrant healthspan beyond a one-dimensional lifespan.

Consumers are beginning to look inward and invest in optimizing for better functionality and performance as they age, instead of the historical tendency to focus on outward appearance, said Scott Dicker, senior director, market insights at SPINS in an October 2024 ITB webinar. People are becoming more and more interested in lowering their biological age, which presents new opportunities for products targeting cellular health.

4. Data-driven approach to the pipeline

Every quality data point has the potential to offer valuable insights and shape the product development pipeline. In clinical research, the adage “all data is good data” holds profound significance, according to Radicle Science cofounders Jeff Chen, M.D. and Pelin Thorogood.⁵  While there’s a tendency to prioritize positive outcomes and statistically significant findings, every quality data point has the potential to offer valuable insights. They believe that thinking about data this way can drive scientific discovery forward in remarkable ways.

A broader approach to research can offer a more nuanced understanding of an intervention’s overall impact on health and functioning. For example, in a study investigating inflammation reduction, researchers might expand their scope beyond discomfort to include measures of physical function, psychological well-being and quality of life. Embracing the power of all data — from diverse populations — can also be a key, they noted, to unlocking the full potential of personalized wellness.

5. Women's health: Getting specific

Women have long gotten the short stick when it comes to scientific research regarding their health, but their concerns are unique and focusing on them is paying off for supplement manufacturers. An “accelerating next wave of women’s health” tops the list in the SPINS 2024 CPG Trends report.⁶ Product formulations for women will further segment and specialize, with many targeting specific use cases and life stages — especially as Gen X women reach menopause.

Menopause, overall, is a “condition to watch,” noted NBJ analysts in their 2024 Condition Specific Report.  Sales of supplements for menopause reached $635.1 million in 2023, up 14% since 2019. And they’re just getting started, with growth rates on a gradual climb to 7.7% in 2026, a year the overall supplement industry is expected to grow at 5.3%.

As the spectrum of products for women grows, the marketing around them is becoming more sophisticated, moving beyond “pink it and shrink it” to more thoughtful messaging. Women-owned brands will emerge front and center for 2024, as venture capitalists begin to focus on women’s health care.⁷

6. New perspectives and support for weight loss

Morgan Stanley predicts sales of weight loss pharmaceuticals could grow from $6 billion in 2023 to $105 billion in 2030. NBJ’s 2024 Supplements in the Ozempic Age Special Report finds vast and diverse opportunities to ride on the GLP-1 coattails. Federal regulations allow supplements to address the nutrient deficiencies linked to drugs. This opens the door to meal replacements, protein formulations, high-potency multivitamins and fiber products. 

Beyond opportunities for products that support consumers while they are taking GLP-1 drugs, there is great potential to help patients who do not stick with the protocol. And there are a lot of them. Only 32% of patients stuck with Ozempic for a full year, according to pharmacy benefits manager Prime Therapeutics.⁸ This presents opportunities for supplement companies seeking to support them as they cycle off the drugs, as discussed in the 2024 NBJ Sports Nutrition and Weight Management issue. As the market shifts from “weight management” to “metabolic and full-system balance,” the focus will be on healthy metabolism and the ingredients that support it.

Ultimately, robust growth in 2025 and beyond will depend on getting ahead of consumer (and media) confusion. In 2024, consumers continued to call for more science and less marketing hype as they scrutinized labels. As we begin the year, Inside the Bottle will continue to dig into how companies are succeeding in their efforts to elevate the key guiding principles noted here, from the importance of supply chain transparency to the ongoing need to focus on science and industry self-regulation to enhance consumer trust. Inside the Bottle will showcase technical advances that will improve products and research in order to support a thriving industry and embrace the potential for a new era in which prevention and wellness are accessible to all.

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