The Analyst’s Take: Updated growth forecasts from NBJ

Being the predictor for an industry is never an easy undertaking, but the events in and since 2020 have made it both easier and harder. In such “unprecedented” times, the need to revise previous projections is completely understandable, though the news comes a lot easier when the projection comes in the form of record sales growth of 14.5%, rather than an adjustment in the opposite direction.

However, that is where we are now: revising our previous projections given the economic climate through the second half of 2022. NBJ most recently released estimates for 2022 in the middle of last year, with growth forecasted at 4.2% and falling to 3.7% in 2023. After research and analysis completed in December 2022, we are now estimating growth at 1.7% for 2022 and falling to 1.2% this year. 

This brings the estimated total sales volume to an estimated $60.92 billion in 2022, about $1.5 billion lower than previously expected. With the growth curve normalizing—we expect to see increases after this year—total sales volume is projected to surpass pre-COVID projections from 2019. From a channel perspective, the largest adjustment is seen in e-commerce, which notched back to 3.9% growth last year, and the biggest impact across categories comes from vitamins, which had a decline of 3.2%.

This updated research is covered in NBJ’s Supplement Market Economy Update, which is available for pre-orders now. Research in the report includes not only updated market sizing forecasts, but results from industry and consumer surveys conducted late last year as well.