Analyst's Take: Have gummy supplements hit their ceiling?

Back in 2021, gummy formats were all the craze in the supplement industry. Whether they were multivitamins, probiotics or other specialty ingredients like melatonin, many new consumers brought into the market by the pandemic were seeking out fun ways to consume dietary supplements. Nutrition Business Journal estimates at that time, gummies experienced their highest-ever growth of 71.9%, valued at a $12.84 billion market.

While many people in the industry assumed a market correction was imminent, alas, we have yet to experience any low or negative growth for the gummy category. In 2022, gummies grew at another impressive double-digit rate of 12.2%, during a year when the entire industry saw a correction and record-low growth of only 1.9%. This sustained, healthy growth is in part due to those new customers who continue to enter the market by purchasing the buzzing, new product they found on social media (mostly TikTok) or by hearing about it from a friend—who also saw it on TikTok. Because, let’s face it, gummies are fun to take and have much better flavor than a capsule or softgel.

NBJ regularly launches consumer surveys, and what’s revealed is that many of the new consumers in the supplement market—those who have started purchasing supplements within the last two years—are of younger generations, mostly Gen Z. This generation has no tolerance for boring, flavorless products. They will seek out products to make their morning or evening routine more exciting and aesthetically pleasing so they can boast about it on social media.

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The question is: How long will growth continue for gummies? When will it reach its ceiling? Social media is both helpful and hurtful for this format, given the negative press some products receive from lacking effective dosages. While everyone who works in the supplement industry hears of this news, how bothered are regular consumers by this information? Do they know or even care? A recent NBJ survey launched in April 2024 found 75% of dietary supplement users say they have “quite a bit of trust” or “a lot of trust” in dietary supplements. It’s a rather encouraging sentiment, but let’s not get complacent with consumer trust and loyalty.

With gummy product launches slowing down and shelves becoming overwhelmed with options, what’s next for this fun format? In 2023, NBJ predicts gummies to be the second-highest growth format, at 8.7%, only slightly tapering off in 2025 to 8%. Find out which other formats are performing well in the recently released 2024 NBJ Supplement Business Report.

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